"The USA and its 50 state jurisdictions provide a natural experiment to test whether excess all-cause deaths can be directly attributed to implementing the social and economic structural large-scale changes induced by ordering general-population lockdowns. Ten states had no lockdown impositions and there are 38 pairs of lockdown/non-lockdown states that share a land border. We find that the regulatory imposition and enforcement of state-wide shelter-in-place or stay-at-home orders conclusively correlates with larger health-status-corrected, per capita, all-cause mortality by state. This result is inconsistent with the hypothesis that lockdowns saved lives...
Figure 4: The health-status adjusted per capita ACM ratio (R) for each neighboring pair of states listed on the y-axis. The ratio is based on summing all deaths in each state over the time period corresponding to the lockdown state’s lockdown duration. The error bars show the 95% confidence interval for each pair’s ratio. Ratios to the left of the vertical line indicate that fewer deaths occurred in the lockdown state than in the non-lockdown state, while ratios to the right of the vertical line indicate that states with lockdowns experienced more deaths."
