Index Entries

Falk Morl, Michael Gunther, and Robert Rockenfeller
December 7, 2023
International Journal of Vaccine Theory, Practice, and Research

"The Research Plan

Our objective, in this paper, is to estimate the number of German residents who died due to SARS-CoV-2 vaccination in the campaign during the year 2021. We build our analysis only on data acquired, managed, and reported by the German governmental authorities and semi-governmental institutions...

Discussion

To arrive at our target...we adjusted (by up-scaling) the 2,255 deaths in 2021, which have been officially reported by the PEI [Paul Ehrlich Institut] to be vaccine-associated because of their occurrence within an observation period of 50 days after injection, to 22,388. This up-scaling compensates the PEI’s under-reporting of AEs [adverse events] by replacing their AE record with the corresponding KBV [Kassenarztliche Bundesvereinigung] record which accounts for (covering 90% of the AEs) U12.9 treatments within the German population by physicians. From these up-scaled 22,338 AE-associated deaths, we subtracted roughly 25% due to expected all-cause mortality, to eventually arrive at an estimate of 16,817 deaths being our (best) estimate of deaths due to (caused by) SARS-CoV-2 vaccination during 2021.

To appreciate this death toll, we note that 16,817 excess deaths per year correspond to two thirds of the excess deaths of the most severe influenza epidemics in Germany between 2000 and 2019... That is, the probability of dying from any cause within the vaccinated population, and if falling in that group being affected by an AE, was approximately quadrupled in comparison to the risk of dying of any other cause during 2021."

 

The KBV (Kassenarztliche Bundesvereinigung) translated to English is the "National Association of Statutory Health Insurance Physicians"

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adverse events,adverse-event reporting systems,all cause mortality,COVID-19,health statistics,vaccines