How Much Could COVID-19 Vaccines Cost the U.S. After Commercialization?

"The federal government has spent more than $30 billion on COVID-19 vaccines, including the new bivalent boosters, incentivizing their development, guaranteeing a market, and ensuring that these vaccines would be provided free of charge to the U.S. population. However, last year, the Biden Administration announced that it no longer had funding, absent further Congressional action, to make additional purchases and it began preparing for the transition of COVID-19 vaccines to the commercial market. This means that manufacturers will be negotiating prices directly with insurers and purchasers, not just the federal government, and prices are expected to rise....

Here, we illustrate the potential total cost of Pfizer and Moderna COVID-19 vaccines, based on their publicly-announced expected prices, once they enter the U.S. commercial market. Specifically, we compare the average price paid by the federal government for the COVID-19 bivalent boosters to the estimated average commercial prices that have been suggested by manufacturers, and calculate an overall cost for purchasing vaccines for the adult population (ages 18 and older) across different scenarios of vaccine uptake (we only estimate costs for purchasing a single vaccine dose under different population uptake scenarios though it is possible that additional boosters will be needed on an annual or some other regular basis). While four COVID-19 vaccines have been authorized or approved for use in the United States, we focus our analysis only on Pfizer and Moderna vaccines, which account for almost all doses administered in the U.S. (97% as of March 22) and approximately 80% of all federal funding spent on COVID-19 vaccines.

The federal government has so far purchased 1.2 billion doses of Pfizer and Moderna COVID-19 vaccines combined, at a cost of $25.3 billion, or a weighted average purchase price of $20.69 per dose...

While the commercial prices for COVID-19 vaccines are not yet known, both Pfizer and Moderna have signaled likely ranges that are three to four times greater than the pre-purchased federal price for the bivalent booster. In a recent investor call, Pfizer indicated that it expected a commercial price per dose for its vaccine to be between $110 and $130. Moderna has also suggested the same range."