"Abstract
A new mortality model is presented for more objective quantification and localization in time of excess mortality. The model is just one equation, M = W*atT, with source data of mortality and temperature. Parameters represent trends over decades, seasonal/weekly variability, delay between cause and death, frailty regulating delay between excess and deficit, lifetime lost/saved (LTL/LTS), and natural mortality variability. Pandemic excesses are examined by integrating determinants of positive covid tests and vaccinations. Measured parameters are covid Case Fatality Rate (CFR), Vaccine-dose Fatality Rate (VFR), Vaccine Effectivity (VE) against covid mortality, and LTL/LTS by covid and vaccination. Experiments involve 10 EU countries (344M people) and age-stratified datasets in The Netherlands over years 2000-2023. Predictions and excess measurements by the proposed model are fivefold more accurate than those of the national baseline. Covid is found to target much frailer people than natural causes do, and vaccine fatal events target younger and healthier people. Measured lifetime lost to vaccinations is of the same order as lifetime saved: Germany has LTL 450-4600ky (kiloyear), Netherlands 50-500ky. The model is very different from the state of the art and many options for further research are outlined. A disturbing relation is found between vaccinations and the persisting excess mortality among the young and healthy population."
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