Proximal Origin of Epidemic Highly Pathogenic Avian Influenza H5N1 Clade 2.3.4.4b and Spread by Migratory Waterfowl

"Introduction

As of 29 May, 2024, there has been significant media coverage concerning a new highly pathogenic variant of H5N1 avian influenza, commonly referred to as 'bird flu.' ...

The variant referred to in this WHO advisory is known as highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) H5N1 clade 2.3.4.4b. A literature review on this variant revealed that it-and the subtype (H5Nx) from which it emerged-possess conspicuous functions that were not evident in the viruses from which this new clade is alleged to have evolved...

According to a 2021 paper titled ‘H5Nx Viruses emerged during the suppression of H5N1 virus populations in poultry’ by a research team of the University of Georgia:

“We show that H5Nx viruses emerged during the successful suppression of H5N1 virus populations in poultry [in China], providing an opportunity for antigenically distinct H5Nx viruses to propagate. Avian influenza vaccination programs would benefit from universal vaccines targeting a wider diversity of influenza viruses to prevent the emergence of novel subtypes."

The findings of these researchers present an illustrative case of Dr. Geert Vanden Bossche’s thesis that mass vaccination with nonsterilizing vaccines can result in the emergence of a new, more virulent viral strain [aka, vaccine immune escape]. As the University of Georgia team note, “In particular, we show that the widespread use of H5N1 vaccines likely conferred a fitness advantage to H5Nx viruses due to the antigenic mismatch of the neuraminidase genes”...

H5N1 Gain-of-Function Risks and Biosecurity Concerns

It’s possible that other H5N1 lab leaks could have occurred in laboratories across the world...

Laboratory leaks are far more common than one may realize from news reporting. Since 2001, there have been 309 confirmed and reported lab-acquired infections globally, with a vast majority (78.6%) occurring in the U.S. This number is expected to be even higher because not all cases are reported to the media or published in peer-reviewed journals. The risk of unreported lab leaks is suspected of being especially high in China, where the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) imposes a high level of secrecy about the activities of Chinese biolabs...

Conclusion

The proximal origins of highly pathogenic avian influenza H5N1 Clade 2.3.4.4b may be the USDA Southeast Poultry Research Laboratory (SEPRL) in Athens, Georgia and the Erasmus Medical Centre in Rotterdam, the Netherlands. Genetic evidence and historical context suggest that laboratory activities, including serial passage and GOF research, could have contributed to the emergence of H5N1 clade 2.3.4.4b."