The correlation between Australian Excess Deaths by State and Booster Vaccinations

"1. Introduction

This paper features an analysis of factors associated with the recent experience of excess deaths, by individual state and territory in Australia as it relates to the official historical record of total booster vaccinations by State and Territory.It relates it to vaccine data obtained from Australian Government official health statistics...

The purpose of the current paper is to explore the statistical linkage between excess deaths and Covid Booster vaccinations in an Australian context...

2. Methods

The basic method of analysis is ordinary least squares regression analysis (OLS)...

In this paper, cross-validation techniques are applied together with basic descriptive statistics and heatmaps to explore the correlations between variables used in the bivariate regression analyses...

4. Bivariate regression Results, cross-validation and Discussion

… Table 3 reveals in the first row of Part A, that excess deaths are significantly related to booster doses, the relationship is significant at the 1 per cent level and the Adjusted R-Squared in the bivariate regression is 0.71. In the second row there is a very similar bivariate regression relationship between excess deaths and total vaccinations, which is significant at the 1 per cent level with a similar Adjusted-R-Squared of 0.71. The third row of Table 3, Part A, shows that there is also a similar relationship between excess deaths and the recently vaccinated cohort by State which is also significant at the 1 per cent level and has an Adjusted-R-Squared of 0.69. These first three rows of results suggest that there is a consistent relationship between excess deaths and various vaccination measures across the Australian States...

5. Conclusion

This paper presents the results of an OLS regression of the number of excess deaths, by State and Territory in Australia, as reported in official sources in 2023, on recorded excess booster vaccine doses by State and Territory. The results are quite striking and suggest the existence of a strong regression relationship with significant coefficients and an Adjusted R-squared of 71 percent. Simple cross-validation tests suggest that the regression results are robust... These results match those of a recent study by Allen (2023) on the OECD [Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development] country experience of excess deaths."