The Young were not Spared: What Death Certificates Reveal about Non-Covid Excess Death

"Abstract

From April 2020 through at least the end of 2021, Americans died from non-Covid causes at an average annual rate of 97 000 in excess of previous trends. Hypertension and heart disease deaths combined were elevated 32 000. Diabetes or obesity, drug-induced causes, and alcohol-induced causes were each elevated 12 000 to 15 000 above previous (upward) trends. Drug deaths especially followed an alarming trend, only to significantly exceed it during the pandemic to reach 108 000 for calendar year 2021. Homicide and motor-vehicle fatalities combined were elevated almost 10 000. Various other causes combined to add 18 000. While Covid deaths overwhelmingly afflict senior citizens, absolute numbers of non-Covid excess deaths are similar for each of the 18 to 44, 45 to 64, and over-65 age groups, with essentially no aggregate excess deaths of children. Mortality from all causes during the pandemic was elevated 26% for working-age adults (18-64), as compared to 18% for the elderly. Other data on drug addictions, non-fatal shootings, weight gain, and cancer screenings point to a historic, yet largely unacknowledged, health emergency...

Conclusions

c... [C]onverted to dollars at a $10 000 000 average value of a statistical life, the non-Covid excess deaths through the end of 2021 cost $1.7 trillion. Alternatively, using progressively lower values for ages 45 to 64 and ages 65+ in the proportions estimated from an economic model, the cost is $1.1 trillion...

... Summing our estimates across causes and age groups, we estimate 171 000 excess non-Covid deaths through the end of 2021 plus 72 000 unmeasured Covid deaths. The Economist has assembled national-level mortality data from around the world and obtains a similar U.S. estimate, which is 199,000 (including any unmeasured Covid) or about 60 persons per 100 000 population. For the European Union as a whole, the estimate is near-identical at 64 non-Covid excess deaths per 100 K. In contrast, the estimate for Sweden is −33, meaning that non-Covid causes of death were somewhat low during the pandemic. We suspect that some of the international differences are due to the standard used to designate a death as Covid, but perhaps also Sweden’s result is related to minimizing the disruption of its citizen’s normal lifestyles."